Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.236954 0.275671 0.318030 0.367718 0.424311 0.486662 0.560455
2025-11-23 0.165212 0.216111 0.277736 0.357390 0.457119 0.577315 0.732546
2025-11-30 0.137480 0.195991 0.272241 0.377860 0.519167 0.700336 0.948584
2025-12-07 0.108921 0.167349 0.248477 0.367668 0.536261 0.763776 1.091025
2025-12-14 0.087949 0.144536 0.227681 0.356341 0.547370 0.816795 1.220710
2025-12-21 0.072869 0.127378 0.211706 0.348444 0.560435 0.871313 1.354586
2025-12-28 0.063971 0.118192 0.206012 0.354411 0.593344 0.955780 1.537075
2026-01-04 0.057815 0.112398 0.204589 0.366307 0.635680 1.056796 1.751160
2026-01-11 0.051851 0.105882 0.200889 0.373588 0.670637 1.148355 1.956668
2026-01-18 0.046164 0.098902 0.195324 0.376704 0.698406 1.229866 2.151328
2026-01-25 0.040935 0.091912 0.188719 0.376950 0.720771 1.303510 2.337536
2026-02-01 0.036084 0.084865 0.181022 0.374123 0.737041 1.367522 2.511364
2026-02-08 0.031526 0.077790 0.172556 0.369245 0.749761 1.427494 2.684779
2026-02-15 0.026801 0.069552 0.160702 0.356469 0.746659 1.459571 2.812495
2026-02-22 0.025677 0.069293 0.165207 0.376676 0.807841 1.610992 3.161505
2026-03-01 0.022170 0.062770 0.155484 0.366495 0.808658 1.651606 3.312596
2026-03-08 0.019077 0.056676 0.145823 0.355199 0.805903 1.684837 3.451606
2026-03-15 0.016636 0.051783 0.138189 0.347325 0.809179 1.729386 3.614181
2026-03-22 0.015326 0.049682 0.136826 0.353274 0.841844 1.833202 3.896307
2026-03-29 0.014468 0.048684 0.138000 0.365135 0.888104 1.966901 4.244394
2026-04-05 0.013442 0.047013 0.137269 0.372395 0.924808 2.083554 4.565539
2026-04-12 0.012319 0.044835 0.134936 0.375502 0.952403 2.183144 4.858121
2026-04-19 0.011190 0.042410 0.131611 0.375748 0.973373 2.270036 5.129578